(WSIL)---Tuesday's Illinois Primary Election had a few surprises, and political analysts at the Paul Simon Public Policy institute said the new political maps played a large hand.
"Incumbents have a major advantage in every way over challengers and incumbents, most of the time, win. There is one possible exception to that rule and that is coming off a redistricting year, which this was. If you're going to beat an incumbent, that's the time you can do it," said John Jackson, a visiting professor at the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.Â
Representatives Paul Jacobs and Patrick Windhorst proved this, winning their seats following the redistricting.
Jacobs moved from the 115th district to 118th and Windhorst moved from the 118th to the 117th district.
But redistricting can be tricky, as when incumbents Mary Miller and Rodney Davis both fought for the new 15th district, which encompassed most of Davis's old district.
"The 15th district looked like a district that was more friendly to Davis, and I was surprised she was able to beat him," said Jackson.
And in the gubernatorial race, Senator Darren Bailey secured 58 percent of Republican votes.
While Bailey has a strong base, his more conservative views may not be appealing to more moderate voters.
"I think Bailey has really passionate supporters. I mean, the people who support him are not lukewarm. They are gonna be all in for him and they're not gonna fade away. So I think he has a core of voters who will show up for him and are really passionate. Whether he has enough support to win and be seen as a credible candidate across the state is really unclear," said John Shaw, the Director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.
"Pritzker would have to be the odds out favorite. Bailey's gonna run well down state and he's gonna run gang busters in central and southern Illinois. He's gonna hit a major obstacle in suburban, collar counties around Chicago, and certainly in Chicago, so the Governor is not necessarily going to be threatened by Bailey in my estimation," said Jackson.
