(WSIL) -- A report out of 九游体育 Illinois University-Carbondale suggests Illinois is matching national election trends that have been shifting the past 30 years.
"Biden, Trump, Durbin and Taxes" is an 80-page paper produced by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. The report examines Illinois' 2020 election results including the presidential and senate races and its failed 'Fair Tax' proposal.
One of the report's key findings reveals a geographical party realignment among Democrats and Republicans in Illinois, mirroring that of the U.S.
John Jackson, a visiting professor and one of the report's co-authors, says Democrats have given up land and gained population while Republicans have given up population but gained land.
"[Illinois is] very much a bellwether state. We're very much like the nation as a whole," Jackson said.
Jackson says the shift has given Democrats an edge in vote-rich large citites and most suburbs. Suburban voters were once a stronghold of the Illinois GOP, Jackson says.
"Dupage County was absolutely the most important Republican county in the state and it was the backbone of the Republican party," Jackson said. "Now Dupage is largely Democratic."
On the flip side, Republicans have taken almost all the rural ground and small cities, Jackson says. He adds Democrats likely won't run in downstate offices because of competition and lack of campaign funds.
"Outside Jackson County...聽 the rest of southern Illinois is totally red now," Jackson said. "Democrats used to have lots of offices across southern Illinois. Now they have almost none."
Ultimately, Jackson says, it's all about which candidate can get the most votes, not the most counties. Jackson says the report reveals a challenge for Republicans in statewide races.
"The Republicans don't have good prospects for winning statewide. They've given up people in order to get more geography," Jackson said. "Democrats have done the opposite. They've gotten people and given up geography."
The party realignment explains the deep polarization experienced in Illinois and the U.S. the past 30 years, Jackson says.聽
Campaign messaging was also key finding in the report. Jackson says Gov. JB Pritzker's proposed graduated income tax, or 'Fair Tax', failed because Republicans put millions of dollars into anti-messaging.
Jackson says it was an effective strategy that could continue into the November elections and even into 2024.
"It showed... an effective message that tapped into people's suspicion, their mistrust of government, their hatred of taxes," Jackson said.
To read the full report you can click .