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How likely will COVID-19 mitigations be loosened in Region 5 next week? A closer look at the numbers

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REGION 5 MITIGATIONS

(WSIL) -- Residents across Illinois might be able to eat indoors as soon as next week again.

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Starting January 15, regions will be eligible to have COVID-19 mitigations rolled back. Each region's coronavirus data will determine if it can fall back into tier 2 mitigations or have no mitigations at all and return to Phase 4 of the state's Restore Illinois plan.

For mitigations to be relaxed, a region must experience less than 12 percent test positivity rate for three consecutive days AND greater than 20 percent available intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital bed availability AND declining COVID hospitalizations in 7 out of the last 10 days.

So how does Region 5 sit?

Positivity Rate

As of Jan. 5, the region's seven-day rolling positivity rate sat at 11.4%, an increase from 11.2% on Jan. 4.

In the past 10 days, the region's positivity rate fell from 11.7% to the current 11.4%.

Hospital Bed Availability

Hospital bed availability is tracked on a three-day rolling average. As of Jan. 7, Region 5 had 31.3% of med/surg beds available, but only 14.2% of the state's ICU beds available.

The region has seen 11 consecutive days over the 20% threshold for med/surg beds, but has been under the 20% threshold for ICU beds since Dec. 8.

COVID-19 Hospitalizations

Currently, the region has seen a decrease in hospitalizations in 6 out of the past 10 days, falling short of the state's 7/10 metric.

Conclusion

As of Jan. 7, Region 5 would NOT be able to have mitigations rolled back due to not meeting the state's requirements for the number of days for decrease hospitalizations and ICU bed availability.

In terms of dining indoors, the region will not likely be able to eat indoors next week as the state requires a region to be under 6.5% for its positivity rate for three straight days.